Oil at $300? Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Collapse Western Economies
Welcome to the stream, ladies and gentlemen. We have some breaking news today that's not only crazy but potentially catastrophic. Iranian parliamentary figure Ismael Khazari has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. If you don't know why that matters, let me explain: this narrow waterway is responsible for up to 25% of the world’s oil flow. That's between 17 and 20 million barrels a day. You may not fire a bullet or be anywhere near a battlefield, but if this strait is closed, your world will change overnight.
Let me take you through the scenarios I've been modeling based on current data and oil charts. Brace yourself, because this could get very serious, very fast.
Scenario Breakdown: From Bad to Apocalyptic
Current Price: $70/barrel We're at a manageable level now. This is the typical range due to balanced global supply and demand.
Partial Closure: $120/barrel Drone threats, missile skirmishes, increased insurance costs, and a 5-10% disruption in oil supply. Inflation will tick up, but it's manageable.
2-4 Weeks Full Closure: $180/barrel At this point, the U.S. Navy steps in. Markets panic. Strategic oil reserves get tapped, but they won’t last forever. Inflation begins to spike.
1-3 Months Closure: $250/barrel Now we're in the danger zone. Think back to the 1973 OPEC oil crisis. You'd see a global energy shock, severe inflation, and the beginning of a global recession.
Prolonged Conflict (3+ Months): $300/barrel Welcome to societal collapse. Shipping blocked, tankers attacked, regional war. A full-blown global depression begins. Western economies? Annihilated.
Impact on the United States
Gas prices: $8-$10 per gallon.
Consumer spending: Drops sharply, dragging GDP with it.
Markets: Collapse, except for defense and energy stocks.
Strategic reserves: Insufficient for prolonged crisis.
Trump might broker peace, but if he doesn’t, the U.S. is in for a very rough ride. Treasury dumping, GDP contraction, mass layoffs – all on the table.
The UK's Looming Disaster
Already vulnerable due to poor energy policy.
Energy prices: Highest in the world.
Public unrest: On the edge; this could push people into the streets.
Stagflation: A real threat. High inflation + economic stagnation.
Net Zero policies crippled energy infrastructure. They didn't just shut down coal and nuclear; they blew them up, literally. There's no way back now.
The European Union’s Weak Link
Energy dependent: Especially France and Germany.
Trade deficits: Will explode.
Civil unrest: Likely as inflation spikes and winter hits.
Germany is trying to run a wartime economy without the energy. France is dwindling. The euro weakens, and import inflation spirals.
Civil Unrest: The Inevitable Outcome
People hit the streets when they can't afford:
To heat their homes
To feed their families
To commute to work
This isn’t speculation. We saw it during:
The Yellow Vest Protests (France)
Arab Spring (2010)
High oil prices mean high food prices. Fertilizer, transport, logistics – everything gets affected. Expect grocery bills to rise 25% by autumn.
Government Response: A Recipe for More Chaos?
Will governments protect the people or themselves? I fear the latter. Likely responses:
Austerity
Price caps
Rationing
Mismanagement
All of this could spark more shortages and more protests. The UK and EU governments appear particularly vulnerable.
Historical Parallels: This Has Happened Before
1973 OPEC Crisis: Oil quadrupled. Fuel rationing. Stagflation.
1979 Iranian Revolution: $15 to $39/barrel. Global panic.
1990 Gulf War: $17 to $46/barrel. Recession followed.
2008 Spike: $60 to $147/barrel. Led into global meltdown.
2011 Arab Spring: $80 to $125/barrel. Riots in over 30 countries.
Every time, oil shocks triggered economic, social, and political collapse.
What Can You Do?
Prepare. Watch the gold and oil charts. Hedge with tangibles. Consider your investments carefully. I’ve long recommended gold and silver – and now you see why.
Programs like my Gold & Silver Investor Course can guide you on how to diversify properly. The Rapid Cashflow Program is closed, but you can still access the precious metals one for now. Don’t wait until it’s too late.
Final Thoughts
We’re at $70 oil today. But if this Strait of Hormuz crisis escalates, it won’t stay there. You’ve seen the roadmaps. You’ve seen the history. This is not a drill.
Thanks for tuning in. Stay alert. Stay prepared.
God bless you and your family.
